DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/14 11:13
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is flat to higher, with wheat and soybeans lower at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 45. The dollar index is 15
lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude flat.
Livestock trade is weaker except for front-month feeder cattle. Precious metals
are mixed with gold up 9.00.
Corn trade is flat to 2 cents higher with choppy trade continuing as trade
works to build broader support at the lower end of the range with sustained
buying in short supply so far this week. Ethanol margins remain stable, with
the weekly ethanol report pushing production 16,000 barrels per day higher,
with stocks down 883,000 barrels, helping to firm ethanol futures at midday.
Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest so far with propane
shortages still noted, but warmer weather should help. South America should see
areas of improvement as planting progresses, especially in Brazil. On the
December contract support is the $3.71 lows from October, with resistance the
spike high from Friday at $3.83 3/4.
Soybeans are 1 to 3 cents lower with trade still struggling at the lower end
of the range with negative trade news and South American hanging over the
market. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil 15 to 25 points higher. The real
remains at the lows, but China continues to buy with another 129,000 metric
tons. Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets of
firmness showing up at crushers. South America should make more progress
through the week with improved weather, and Brazil heading towards the planting
homestretch. On the January chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band at
$9.11, which we are just above with resistance well above the market at $9.33.
Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents lower with trade back to the lower end of the
range after failing to hold gains yesterday. The Chicago/Kansas City December
spread is 87 cents with wider action after bouncing off the lower end of the
range with a dime swing the last two days. The corn/HRW spread has narrowed
back to 44 cents, getting wheat back towards ratios. Russian values remain
elevated with Australia dry, but the U.S. is still struggling to capture a
larger share, with the dollar remaining at the upper end of the range. The
December Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.14, with
resistance the 20-day at 4.23.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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